Prognostic value of copeptin: one-year outcome in patients with acute stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE An accurate long-term outcome prediction may improve management of stroke patients. We investigated the ability of copeptin to predict 1-year outcome in stroke patients. METHODS In this preplanned post hoc analysis, the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score and copeptin levels were measured on admission in a cohort of patients with ischemic stroke. The primary end point was functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale score <3 or 3-6) after 1 year. The secondary end point was all-cause mortality. RESULTS Of 362 patients, 341 (94.2%) completed the 1-year follow-up, 146 (43%) patients had an unfavorable functional outcome, and 66 (20%) died. Multivariate logistic-regression analysis adjusted for age and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score showed that copeptin was an independent predictor of functional outcome (odds ratio=4.00; 95% CI, 1.94-8.19) and death (odds ratio=2.68; 95% CI, 1.24-5.82). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of copeptin was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.67-0.77) for functional outcome and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69-0.78) for mortality. Copeptin improved the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score for functional outcome from 0.70 (95% CI, 0.64-0.74) to 0.76 (95% CI, 0.71-0.82; P=0.002) and for mortality from 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69-0.78) to 0.78 (95% CI, 0.71-0.85; P=0.04). CONCLUSIONS Copeptin levels are a useful, complementary tool to predict functional outcome and mortality 1 year after stroke. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION ISCTRN 00390962; clinicaltrials.gov No. NCT00390962.